DISQUS

mark anderson · 10 months ago

This site is self-embarrassing. Saying that trends cancel predictions is self-serving, and rather goofy. Saying that predictions came true, but you didn't like some aspect of them, is also silly. I've re-read this twice, and it seems these all did in fact come true; I stand by them today, just as I did when I made them. But I won't be bothering reading this site any more, if your only exercise is to whine, rather than look for the accuracy of these calls.

Nigel Eccles · 10 months ago

2008 will be the year that LEDs become more common for lighting? So was 2007, 2006, 2005 etc etc. That is like predicting it will continue to get cold in the winter. Factually correct but of zero predictive value.

I find the concept that you stand by predictions that are manifestly incorrect highly novel. If you stand by the prediction that countries are behaving better and the fake internet has collapsed, where is the evidence?

If you claim a 93% success rate then it is fair for people to point out when your predictions are at variance with the observed data (or more commonly known as wrong).

Louis Gray · 10 months ago

If Mark doesn't want his wooden spoon, I will happily take it. One of the fun things about my set of predictions was to know they were far-fetched. It's as much a prediction of what you want - Facebook buying Digg in an all-stock transaction, for instance, than making sure you were right. Predicting that Apple will release new laptops is one thing. Predicting that Google would release a browser named Chrome in comic book form would have been quite another. :-) Take a risk!

mark anderson · 10 months ago

Under United States law, libel generally requires five key elements. The plaintiff must prove that the information was published, the plaintiff was directly or indirectly identified, the remarks were defamatory towards the plaintiff's reputation, the published information is false, and that the defendant is at fault.

Nigel Eccles · 10 months ago

I assume that is a threat to sue me for libel. Bring it on Nostradameus.

In your world your 10 predictions may have happened but in the world the rest of us live in they either didn't occur or they were so obvious they were not worth mentioning. The only legal system where pointing that out is libelous is in the book 1984.

Tom Ford Sunglasses · 4 months ago

Great post.. Nice list.. I really learn a lot from this site..

CLUBPENGUINS · 3 months ago

One of the fun things about my set of predictions was to know they were far-fetched. It's as much a prediction of what you want - Facebook buying Digg in an all-stock transaction, for instance, than making sure you were right.